1. Division · Sunday, 13 September 2026. Final score 4–1 (half-time 3–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 63% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 37% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 38% | Yes |
The result model puts Stromsgodset at 63%, the draw at 20% and Sandnes ULF at 17%, from expected goals of 2.3 and 1.13.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 66% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Stromsgodset have 14 in 21 this season (7 of 10 at home), Sandnes ULF 9 in 21 (4 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 67% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 67%, from expected goals of 2.3 for Stromsgodset and 1.13 for Sandnes ULF. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stromsgodset | 21 | 67% | 48% | 67% |
| Sandnes ULF | 21 | 43% | 29% | 48% |
More: Stromsgodset season stats · Sandnes ULF season stats · 1. Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.