League Cup · Sunday, 13 September 2026 · 12:00. Our rating makes this 64% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The League Cup average is 52%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 36% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 59% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Rangers at 28%, the draw at 21% and Celtic at 50%, from expected goals of 1.52 and 2.06.
The league sets the starting point. League Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Rangers have 1 in 3 this season (1 of 1 at home), Celtic 2 in 3 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 55%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 59% and 66%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Head to head. These sides have met 11 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 82%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 69%, from expected goals of 1.52 for Rangers and 2.06 for Celtic. Folding in 30% of that view gives 64%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Rangers season stats · Celtic season stats · League Cup table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.