League Cup · Friday, 11 September 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 49% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The League Cup average is 48%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | No |
The result model puts Stenhousemuir at 44%, the draw at 26% and Heart Of Midlothian at 31%, from expected goals of 1.49 and 1.21.
The league sets the starting point. League Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Stenhousemuir have 1 in 4 this season (1 of 2 at home), Heart Of Midlothian 3 in 3 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 46% and 54%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 46% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.49 for Stenhousemuir and 1.21 for Heart Of Midlothian. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stenhousemuir | 4 | 25% | 25% | 50% |
| Heart Of Midlothian | 3 | 100% | 33% | 67% |
More: Stenhousemuir season stats · Heart Of Midlothian season stats · League Cup table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.