Copa Sudamericana · Friday, 11 September 2026 · 01:30. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Copa Sudamericana average is 47%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Cienciano at 38%, the draw at 24% and Atletico Torque at 38%, from expected goals of 1.48 and 1.49.
The league sets the starting point. Copa Sudamericana has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Cienciano have 15 in 24 this season (8 of 13 at home), Atletico Torque 14 in 25 (6 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 57%, from expected goals of 1.48 for Cienciano and 1.49 for Atletico Torque. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cienciano | 24 | 63% | 38% | 63% |
| Atletico Torque | 25 | 56% | 36% | 64% |
More: Copa Sudamericana table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.