Iceland Cup · Friday, 11 September 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 62% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Iceland Cup average is 63%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 38% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 56% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | no pick |
The result model puts Breidablik at 51%, the draw at 20% and Afturelding at 29%, from expected goals of 2.27 and 1.69.
The league sets the starting point. Iceland Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 63% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Breidablik have 13 in 19 this season (7 of 9 at home), Afturelding 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 67% and 63%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 19 and 0 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 67% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 76%, from expected goals of 2.27 for Breidablik and 1.69 for Afturelding. Folding in 30% of that view gives 65%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 62%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breidablik | 19 | 68% | 53% | 68% |
| Afturelding | 0 | — | — | — |
More: Breidablik season stats · Afturelding season stats · Iceland Cup table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.