Liga de Expansión · Friday, 11 September 2026 · 02:00. Our rating makes this 45% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Liga de Expansión average is 53%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Alebrijes de Oaxaca at 33%, the draw at 29% and Durango at 38%, from expected goals of 1.04 and 1.14.
The league sets the starting point. Liga de Expansión has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Alebrijes de Oaxaca have 2 in 6 this season (0 of 3 at home), Durango 2 in 6 (0 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 46% and 45%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 50% and 45%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 37%, from expected goals of 1.04 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca and 1.14 for Durango. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 6 | 33% | 0% | 33% |
| Durango | 6 | 33% | 0% | 17% |
More: Alebrijes de Oaxaca season stats · Durango season stats · Liga de Expansión table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.