PSV Eindhoven v Shakhtar Donetsk — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Champions League · Thursday, 10 September 2026 · 17:45. Our rating makes this 68% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Champions League average is 58%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts PSV Eindhoven at 24%, the draw at 20% and Shakhtar Donetsk at 56%, from expected goals of 1.48 and 2.31.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Champions League has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. PSV Eindhoven have 4 in 4 this season (2 of 2 at home), Shakhtar Donetsk 1 in 4 (0 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 65% and 52%.

Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 79% and 58%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 66%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 73%, from expected goals of 1.48 for PSV Eindhoven and 2.31 for Shakhtar Donetsk. Folding in 30% of that view gives 68%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: Champions League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.