Champions League · Thursday, 10 September 2026 · 17:45. Our rating makes this 57% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Champions League average is 56%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | no pick |
The result model puts Fenerbahçe at 39%, the draw at 22% and AS Roma at 39%, from expected goals of 1.75 and 1.75.
The league sets the starting point. Champions League has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Fenerbahçe have 2 in 3 this season (1 of 1 at home), AS Roma 2 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 60%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 63% and 40%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 68%, from expected goals of 1.75 for Fenerbahçe and 1.75 for AS Roma. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe | 3 | 67% | 33% | 67% |
| AS Roma | 2 | 100% | 100% | 0% |
More: Champions League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.