Copa Libertadores · Thursday, 10 September 2026 · 01:30. Our rating makes this 37% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Copa Libertadores average is 41%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 63% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | 83% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 44% | 56% | No |
The result model puts Estudiantes L.P. at 52%, the draw at 28% and Corinthians at 20%, from expected goals of 1.39 and 0.74.
The league sets the starting point. Copa Libertadores has produced over 2.5 goals in 41% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Estudiantes L.P. have 6 in 24 this season (5 of 13 at home), Corinthians 9 in 25 (5 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 35% and 39%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 38%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 36%, from expected goals of 1.39 for Estudiantes L.P. and 0.74 for Corinthians. Folding in 30% of that view gives 37%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estudiantes L.P. | 24 | 25% | 8% | 17% |
| Corinthians | 25 | 36% | 16% | 48% |
More: Copa Libertadores table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.