Copa Sudamericana · Wednesday, 9 September 2026 · 23:00. Our rating makes this 41% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Copa Sudamericana average is 48%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 59% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 79% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | Yes |
The result model puts Santos at 37%, the draw at 31% and Atletico-MG at 33%, from expected goals of 1.05 and 0.97.
The league sets the starting point. Copa Sudamericana has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Santos have 14 in 24 this season (6 of 13 at home), Atletico-MG 12 in 24 (5 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 44%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 33%, from expected goals of 1.05 for Santos and 0.97 for Atletico-MG. Folding in 30% of that view gives 41%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santos | 24 | 58% | 33% | 67% |
| Atletico-MG | 24 | 50% | 29% | 46% |
More: Copa Sudamericana table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.