Copa Libertadores · Wednesday, 9 September 2026 · 23:00. Our rating makes this 39% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Copa Libertadores average is 46%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 61% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | 82% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | Yes |
The result model puts Palmeiras at 45%, the draw at 31% and LDU de Quito at 24%, from expected goals of 1.17 and 0.77.
The league sets the starting point. Copa Libertadores has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Palmeiras have 14 in 25 this season (6 of 12 at home), LDU de Quito 7 in 28 (4 of 14 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 35%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 43%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 31%, from expected goals of 1.17 for Palmeiras and 0.77 for LDU de Quito. Folding in 30% of that view gives 39%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras | 25 | 56% | 28% | 64% |
| LDU de Quito | 28 | 25% | 4% | 32% |
More: Copa Libertadores table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.