Superettan · Wednesday, 9 September 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 47% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Superettan average is 56%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Ljungskile SK at 40%, the draw at 28% and Norrby IF at 32%, from expected goals of 1.25 and 1.08.
The league sets the starting point. Superettan has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ljungskile SK have 10 in 21 this season (5 of 11 at home), Norrby IF 9 in 21 (3 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 41%, from expected goals of 1.25 for Ljungskile SK and 1.08 for Norrby IF. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ljungskile SK | 21 | 48% | 38% | 57% |
| Norrby IF | 21 | 43% | 33% | 62% |
More: Ljungskile SK season stats · Norrby IF season stats · Superettan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.