Copa Sudamericana · Wednesday, 9 September 2026 · 21:00. Our rating makes this 34% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Copa Sudamericana average is 40%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 66% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | 86% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Boca Juniors at 49%, the draw at 31% and Sao Paulo at 20%, from expected goals of 1.19 and 0.65.
The league sets the starting point. Copa Sudamericana has produced over 2.5 goals in 40% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Boca Juniors have 7 in 22 this season (0 of 11 at home), Sao Paulo 9 in 22 (5 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 30% and 41%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 36%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 28%, from expected goals of 1.19 for Boca Juniors and 0.65 for Sao Paulo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 34%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boca Juniors | 22 | 32% | 9% | 50% |
| Sao Paulo | 22 | 41% | 14% | 64% |
More: Copa Sudamericana table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.