EFL Cup · Tuesday, 8 September 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 46% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The EFL Cup average is 55%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 54% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 77% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | no pick |
The result model puts Sunderland at 44%, the draw at 28% and Hull City at 28%, from expected goals of 1.28 and 0.97.
The league sets the starting point. EFL Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sunderland have 1 in 2 this season (0 of 1 at home), Hull City 0 in 2 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 50%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 46% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 39%, from expected goals of 1.28 for Sunderland and 0.97 for Hull City. Folding in 30% of that view gives 46%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 2 | 50% | 0% | 50% |
| Hull City | 2 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
More: Sunderland season stats · Hull City season stats · EFL Cup table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.