Copa Sudamericana · Tuesday, 8 September 2026 · 23:00. Our rating makes this 49% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Copa Sudamericana average is 46%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Santa Fe at 53%, the draw at 25% and Vasco DA Gama at 22%, from expected goals of 1.63 and 0.96.
The league sets the starting point. Copa Sudamericana has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Santa Fe have 13 in 28 this season (8 of 14 at home), Vasco DA Gama 14 in 24 (6 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 48%, from expected goals of 1.63 for Santa Fe and 0.96 for Vasco DA Gama. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Fe | 28 | 46% | 25% | 71% |
| Vasco DA Gama | 24 | 58% | 25% | 67% |
More: Copa Sudamericana table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.