Copa Libertadores · Tuesday, 8 September 2026 · 21:00. Our rating makes this 39% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Copa Libertadores average is 45%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 61% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | 83% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | No |
The result model puts Palmeiras at 40%, the draw at 31% and LDU de Quito at 29%, from expected goals of 1.07 and 0.88.
The league sets the starting point. Copa Libertadores has produced over 2.5 goals in 45% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Palmeiras have 13 in 23 this season (5 of 11 at home), LDU de Quito 6 in 25 (3 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 34%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 42%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 31%, from expected goals of 1.07 for Palmeiras and 0.88 for LDU de Quito. Folding in 30% of that view gives 39%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras | 23 | 57% | 26% | 61% |
| LDU de Quito | 25 | 24% | 4% | 32% |
More: Copa Libertadores table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.