EFL Cup · Tuesday, 8 September 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 52% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The EFL Cup average is 54%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | no pick |
The result model puts Bournemouth at 46%, the draw at 26% and Lincoln at 28%, from expected goals of 1.48 and 1.1.
The league sets the starting point. EFL Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Bournemouth have 1 in 2 this season (0 of 1 at home), Lincoln 2 in 4 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 55% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 48%, from expected goals of 1.48 for Bournemouth and 1.1 for Lincoln. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 2 | 50% | 0% | 100% |
| Lincoln | 4 | 50% | 25% | 50% |
More: Bournemouth season stats · Lincoln season stats · EFL Cup table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.