Superettan · Monday, 7 September 2026 · 18:05. Our rating makes this 47% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Superettan average is 56%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Orebro SK at 31%, the draw at 30% and Ostersunds FK at 39%, from expected goals of 0.96 and 1.12.
The league sets the starting point. Superettan has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Orebro SK have 10 in 21 this season (5 of 10 at home), Ostersunds FK 8 in 21 (4 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 35%, from expected goals of 0.96 for Orebro SK and 1.12 for Ostersunds FK. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orebro SK | 21 | 48% | 29% | 62% |
| Ostersunds FK | 21 | 38% | 24% | 62% |
More: Orebro SK season stats · Ostersunds FK season stats · Superettan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.