Super League · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 12:35. Our rating makes this 64% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Super League average is 61%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 36% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 37% | Yes |
The result model puts Yunnan Yukun at 54%, the draw at 22% and Shenyang Urban at 24%, from expected goals of 1.9 and 1.2.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.36 | 70% | 64% | -5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.10 | 30% | 36% | +5% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 | 66% | 63% | -3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Yunnan Yukun 1.75, draw 4.10, Shenyang Urban 3.75.
The league sets the starting point. Super League has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Yunnan Yukun have 21 in 25 this season (10 of 12 at home), Shenyang Urban 16 in 24 (6 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 73% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 66%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 1.9 for Yunnan Yukun and 1.2 for Shenyang Urban. Folding in 30% of that view gives 64%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yunnan Yukun | 25 | 84% | 56% | 76% |
| Shenyang Urban | 24 | 67% | 38% | 58% |
More: Yunnan Yukun season stats · Shenyang Urban season stats · Super League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.