A Lyga · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 14:00. Our rating makes this 47% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The A Lyga average is 52%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 78% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts TransINVEST Vilnius at 27%, the draw at 28% and Suduva Marijampole at 45%, from expected goals of 0.94 and 1.3.
The league sets the starting point. A Lyga has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. TransINVEST Vilnius have 18 in 27 this season (7 of 13 at home), Suduva Marijampole 13 in 26 (8 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 14%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 39%, from expected goals of 0.94 for TransINVEST Vilnius and 1.3 for Suduva Marijampole. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TransINVEST Vilnius | 27 | 67% | 33% | 59% |
| Suduva Marijampole | 26 | 50% | 15% | 50% |
More: TransINVEST Vilnius season stats · Suduva Marijampole season stats · A Lyga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.