Liga Pro · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 21:00. Our rating makes this 41% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Liga Pro average is 44%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 59% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 81% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Tecnico Universitario at 23%, the draw at 28% and LDU de Quito at 49%, from expected goals of 0.83 and 1.33.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Pro has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Tecnico Universitario have 13 in 28 this season (7 of 14 at home), LDU de Quito 7 in 28 (4 of 14 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 46% and 34%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 41%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 43%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 37%, from expected goals of 0.83 for Tecnico Universitario and 1.33 for LDU de Quito. Folding in 30% of that view gives 41%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tecnico Universitario | 28 | 46% | 14% | 39% |
| LDU de Quito | 28 | 25% | 4% | 32% |
More: Tecnico Universitario season stats · LDU de Quito season stats · Liga Pro table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.