Superliga · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 54% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Superliga average is 60%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Sonderjyske at 38%, the draw at 26% and AC Horsens at 37%, from expected goals of 1.36 and 1.34.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 54% | +3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 46% | -3% |
| Both teams to score | 1.70 | 55% | 57% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Sonderjyske 2.10, draw 3.40, AC Horsens 3.20.
The league sets the starting point. Superliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sonderjyske have 4 in 6 this season (2 of 3 at home), AC Horsens 4 in 6 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 63%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 58% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.36 for Sonderjyske and 1.34 for AC Horsens. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonderjyske | 6 | 67% | 50% | 50% |
| AC Horsens | 6 | 67% | 17% | 83% |
More: Sonderjyske season stats · AC Horsens season stats · Superliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.