Serie C · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 22:30. Our rating makes this 31% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie C average is 35%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | 69% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | 86% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 43% | 57% | No |
The result model puts Santa Cruz at 34%, the draw at 32% and Botafogo PB at 34%, from expected goals of 0.95 and 0.95.
The league sets the starting point. Serie C has produced over 2.5 goals in 35% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Santa Cruz have 4 in 19 this season (0 of 9 at home), Botafogo PB 8 in 19 (4 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 25% and 38%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 32%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 30%, from expected goals of 0.95 for Santa Cruz and 0.95 for Botafogo PB. Folding in 30% of that view gives 31%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Cruz | 19 | 21% | 11% | 42% |
| Botafogo PB | 19 | 42% | 21% | 47% |
More: Santa Cruz season stats · Botafogo PB season stats · Serie C table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.