Liga Pro · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 21:00. Our rating makes this 41% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Liga Pro average is 44%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 59% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 80% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Mushuc Runa SC at 43%, the draw at 29% and Leones del Norte at 28%, from expected goals of 1.21 and 0.92.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Pro has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Mushuc Runa SC have 14 in 28 this season (5 of 14 at home), Leones del Norte 10 in 27 (7 of 14 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 45% and 42%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 44%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 36%, from expected goals of 1.21 for Mushuc Runa SC and 0.92 for Leones del Norte. Folding in 30% of that view gives 41%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mushuc Runa SC | 28 | 50% | 32% | 54% |
| Leones del Norte | 27 | 37% | 11% | 48% |
More: Mushuc Runa SC season stats · Leones del Norte season stats · Liga Pro table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.