Liga Pro · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 21:00. Our rating makes this 50% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Liga Pro average is 44%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Independiente del Valle at 48%, the draw at 25% and Macara at 27%, from expected goals of 1.58 and 1.11.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Pro has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Independiente del Valle have 18 in 27 this season (9 of 14 at home), Macara 13 in 27 (6 of 14 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 45%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.58 for Independiente del Valle and 1.11 for Macara. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente del Valle | 27 | 67% | 48% | 52% |
| Macara | 27 | 48% | 11% | 48% |
More: Independiente del Valle season stats · Macara season stats · Liga Pro table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.