Kvindeligaen (W) · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 10:30. Our rating makes this 57% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Kvindeligaen (W) average is 57%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Fortuna Hjørring W at 70%, the draw at 19% and Odense Q W at 11%, from expected goals of 2.08 and 0.67.
The league sets the starting point. Kvindeligaen (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 57% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Fortuna Hjørring W have 4 in 5 this season (1 of 2 at home), Odense Q W 3 in 5 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 58%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 51% and 61%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 83%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 52%, from expected goals of 2.08 for Fortuna Hjørring W and 0.67 for Odense Q W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Hjørring W | 5 | 80% | 40% | 60% |
| Odense Q W | 5 | 60% | 20% | 40% |
More: Fortuna Hjørring W season stats · Odense Q W season stats · Kvindeligaen (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.