Super Liga · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 63% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Super Liga average is 58%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 37% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts FK Košice at 55%, the draw at 21% and Dukla Banská Bystrica at 24%, from expected goals of 2.1 and 1.33.
The league sets the starting point. Super Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FK Košice have 5 in 5 this season (2 of 2 at home), Dukla Banská Bystrica 4 in 6 (1 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 65% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 68% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 67%, from expected goals of 2.1 for FK Košice and 1.33 for Dukla Banská Bystrica. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Košice | 5 | 100% | 80% | 100% |
| Dukla Banská Bystrica | 6 | 67% | 50% | 33% |
More: FK Košice season stats · Dukla Banská Bystrica season stats · Super Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.