FAI Cup · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The FAI Cup average is 47%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts Derry City at 54%, the draw at 23% and Dundalk at 23%, from expected goals of 1.83 and 1.13.
The league sets the starting point. FAI Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Derry City have 13 in 27 this season (7 of 14 at home), Dundalk 16 in 27 (8 of 14 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 54%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 57%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 57%, from expected goals of 1.83 for Derry City and 1.13 for Dundalk. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derry City | 27 | 48% | 26% | 63% |
| Dundalk | 27 | 59% | 37% | 74% |
More: Derry City season stats · Dundalk season stats · FAI Cup table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.