Super League · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 12:00. Our rating makes this 55% to go over 2.5 goals, though our own outlier boards contradict the call, so we sit it out. The Super League average is 61%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 37% | Yes |
The result model puts Chongqing Tongliang Long at 28%, the draw at 25% and Shanghai Shenhua at 47%, from expected goals of 1.18 and 1.6.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 55% | 55% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 45% | 45% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 58% | 63% | +5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Chongqing Tongliang Long 3.25, draw 3.70, Shanghai Shenhua 1.95.
The league sets the starting point. Super League has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Chongqing Tongliang Long have 8 in 25 this season (4 of 12 at home), Shanghai Shenhua 17 in 25 (7 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 46% and 63%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.18 for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 1.6 for Shanghai Shenhua. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chongqing Tongliang Long | 25 | 32% | 24% | 52% |
| Shanghai Shenhua | 25 | 68% | 56% | 68% |
More: Chongqing Tongliang Long season stats · Shanghai Shenhua season stats · Super League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.