Liga Pro · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 21:00. Our rating makes this 37% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Liga Pro average is 44%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 63% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | 83% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Aucas at 39%, the draw at 30% and Barcelona SC at 30%, from expected goals of 1.1 and 0.92.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Pro has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Aucas have 10 in 27 this season (6 of 14 at home), Barcelona SC 9 in 27 (4 of 14 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 41% and 37%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 40%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 39%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 33%, from expected goals of 1.1 for Aucas and 0.92 for Barcelona SC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 37%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aucas | 27 | 37% | 19% | 33% |
| Barcelona SC | 27 | 33% | 4% | 44% |
More: Aucas season stats · Barcelona SC season stats · Liga Pro table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.