Super League · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 12:00. Our rating makes this 49% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Super League average is 61%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 38% | Yes |
The result model puts Wuhan Three Towns at 43%, the draw at 26% and Qingdao Youth Island at 31%, from expected goals of 1.46 and 1.2.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 50% | 49% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 50% | 51% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | 52% | 62% | +10% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Wuhan Three Towns 1.90, draw 3.60, Qingdao Youth Island 3.70.
The league sets the starting point. Super League has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Wuhan Three Towns have 12 in 23 this season (4 of 11 at home), Qingdao Youth Island 8 in 25 (5 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 20%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.46 for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.2 for Qingdao Youth Island. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wuhan Three Towns | 23 | 52% | 48% | 65% |
| Qingdao Youth Island | 25 | 32% | 24% | 60% |
More: Wuhan Three Towns season stats · Qingdao Youth Island season stats · Super League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.