Wallern / Marienkirchen v Ried — prediction, stats and goal analysis

ÖFB Cup · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 49% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The ÖFB Cup average is 51%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Wallern / Marienkirchen at 52%, the draw at 24% and Ried at 25%, from expected goals of 1.75 and 1.13.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. ÖFB Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Wallern / Marienkirchen have 0 in 0 this season, Ried 2 in 3 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 52%.

Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 51% and 49%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 1.75 for Wallern / Marienkirchen and 1.13 for Ried. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.

Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 49%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Things worth knowing

• One or both sides play in a league we do not yet cover, so this rating leans on league averages and should be treated with caution.
• Wallern / Marienkirchen return after a break of about 6 weeks — our research found form streaks reset over long lay-offs.
• We make no goals pick on this fixture: European qualifier rounds graded a coin flip across 1,150 historical games, and pre-season cup ties leave the model working from league averages.

More: Ried season stats · ÖFB Cup table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.