1. Division · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 63% to go over 2.5 goals, though our own outlier boards contradict the call, so we sit it out. The 1. Division average is 67%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 37% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | no pick |
The result model puts Strommen at 25%, the draw at 23% and Bryne at 51%, from expected goals of 1.2 and 1.8.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 67% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Strommen have 15 in 20 this season (8 of 10 at home), Bryne 10 in 20 (5 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 72% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 66%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 57%, from expected goals of 1.2 for Strommen and 1.8 for Bryne. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Strommen season stats · Bryne season stats · 1. Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.