1. Division · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 78% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 1. Division average is 67%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 78% | 22% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 68% | 32% | Yes |
The result model puts Stabaek at 78%, the draw at 12% and Moss at 10%, from expected goals of 3.32 and 1.2.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 67% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Stabaek have 15 in 20 this season (7 of 9 at home), Moss 18 in 20 (10 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 71% and 80%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 74%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 76%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 83%, from expected goals of 3.32 for Stabaek and 1.2 for Moss. Folding in 30% of that view gives 78%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Stabaek season stats · Moss season stats · 1. Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.