Czech Liga · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 14:00. Our rating makes this 56% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Czech Liga average is 50%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Slavia Praha at 68%, the draw at 18% and Zbrojovka Brno at 14%, from expected goals of 2.35 and 0.98.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.48 | 64% | 56% | -8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.60 | 36% | 44% | +8% |
| Both teams to score | 1.95 | 48% | 53% | +5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Slavia Praha 1.22, draw 5.75, Zbrojovka Brno 10.00.
The league sets the starting point. Czech Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Slavia Praha have 5 in 6 this season (3 of 3 at home), Zbrojovka Brno 2 in 5 (0 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 46%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 59% and 46%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 65%, from expected goals of 2.35 for Slavia Praha and 0.98 for Zbrojovka Brno. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slavia Praha | 6 | 83% | 50% | 67% |
| Zbrojovka Brno | 5 | 40% | 40% | 60% |
More: Slavia Praha season stats · Zbrojovka Brno season stats · Czech Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.