SKN ST. Polten v Red Bull Salzburg — prediction, stats and goal analysis

ÖFB Cup · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The ÖFB Cup average is 51%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts SKN ST. Polten at 30%, the draw at 27% and Red Bull Salzburg at 43%, from expected goals of 1.08 and 1.35.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. ÖFB Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. SKN ST. Polten have 0 in 3 this season (0 of 2 at home), Red Bull Salzburg 1 in 3 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 50%.

Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 56% and 60%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 44%, from expected goals of 1.08 for SKN ST. Polten and 1.35 for Red Bull Salzburg. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

More: SKN ST. Polten season stats · Red Bull Salzburg season stats · ÖFB Cup table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.