Pro League · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 14:45. Our rating makes this 58% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Pro League average is 53%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Sharjah FC at 36%, the draw at 22% and Dubai United at 43%, from expected goals of 1.74 and 1.92.
The league sets the starting point. Pro League has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sharjah FC have 2 in 3 this season (0 of 1 at home), Dubai United 3 in 3 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 55% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 71%, from expected goals of 1.74 for Sharjah FC and 1.92 for Dubai United. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sharjah FC | 3 | 67% | 33% | 33% |
| Dubai United | 3 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
More: Sharjah FC season stats · Pro League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.