1. SNL · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 19:15. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 1. SNL average is 63%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Olimpija Ljubljana at 45%, the draw at 27% and Brinje-Grosuplje at 28%, from expected goals of 1.37 and 1.01.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 53% | +4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 47% | -4% |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | 49% | 57% | +8% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Olimpija Ljubljana 1.57, draw 3.60, Brinje-Grosuplje 5.00.
The league sets the starting point. 1. SNL has produced over 2.5 goals in 63% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Olimpija Ljubljana have 0 in 7 this season (0 of 4 at home), Brinje-Grosuplje 4 in 7 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 61%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 52% and 61%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 42%, from expected goals of 1.37 for Olimpija Ljubljana and 1.01 for Brinje-Grosuplje. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olimpija Ljubljana | 7 | 0% | 0% | 14% |
| Brinje-Grosuplje | 7 | 57% | 29% | 71% |
More: Olimpija Ljubljana season stats · Brinje-Grosuplje season stats · 1. SNL table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.