Superettan · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 14:00. Our rating makes this 67% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Superettan average is 56%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | 55% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 65% | 35% | Yes |
The result model puts Oddevold at 31%, the draw at 21% and Falkenbergs FF at 48%, from expected goals of 1.61 and 2.05.
The league sets the starting point. Superettan has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Oddevold have 13 in 21 this season (6 of 10 at home), Falkenbergs FF 15 in 21 (10 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 68%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 65%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 71%, from expected goals of 1.61 for Oddevold and 2.05 for Falkenbergs FF. Folding in 30% of that view gives 67%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oddevold | 21 | 62% | 48% | 71% |
| Falkenbergs FF | 21 | 71% | 43% | 81% |
More: Oddevold season stats · Falkenbergs FF season stats · Superettan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.