1. Division · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 67% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 1. Division average is 67%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 65% | 35% | Yes |
The result model puts ODD Ballklubb at 35%, the draw at 22% and Stromsgodset at 43%, from expected goals of 1.67 and 1.87.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 67% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. ODD Ballklubb have 15 in 20 this season (7 of 10 at home), Stromsgodset 14 in 20 (7 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 70% and 68%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 69%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 67%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 69%, from expected goals of 1.67 for ODD Ballklubb and 1.87 for Stromsgodset. Folding in 30% of that view gives 67%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ODD Ballklubb | 20 | 75% | 60% | 65% |
| Stromsgodset | 20 | 70% | 50% | 65% |
More: ODD Ballklubb season stats · Stromsgodset season stats · 1. Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.