NIFL Premiership · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 51% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The NIFL Premiership average is 56%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Limavady United at 33%, the draw at 27% and Dungannon Swifts at 40%, from expected goals of 1.15 and 1.31.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 55% | 51% | -4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.08 | 45% | 49% | +4% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | 56% | 49% | -7% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Limavady United 2.75, draw 3.60, Dungannon Swifts 2.15.
The league sets the starting point. NIFL Premiership has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Limavady United have 1 in 3 this season (1 of 2 at home), Dungannon Swifts 1 in 4 (0 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 50%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 49% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 44%, from expected goals of 1.15 for Limavady United and 1.31 for Dungannon Swifts. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Limavady United | 3 | 33% | 0% | 33% |
| Dungannon Swifts | 4 | 25% | 25% | 25% |
More: Dungannon Swifts season stats · NIFL Premiership table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.