Ligue 1 · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 41% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Ligue 1 average is 53%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 59% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 77% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 55% | No |
The result model puts Le Havre at 45%, the draw at 27% and Stade Brestois 29 at 28%, from expected goals of 1.35 and 1.01.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 45% | 41% | -4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 55% | 59% | +4% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | 52% | 45% | -7% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Le Havre 2.55, draw 3.20, Stade Brestois 29 2.70.
The league sets the starting point. Ligue 1 has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Le Havre have 0 in 2 this season (0 of 1 at home), Stade Brestois 29 2 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 35% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 40%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 42%, from expected goals of 1.35 for Le Havre and 1.01 for Stade Brestois 29. Folding in 30% of that view gives 41%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre | 2 | 0% | 0% | 50% |
| Stade Brestois 29 | 2 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
More: Le Havre season stats · Stade Brestois 29 season stats · Ligue 1 table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.