1. Division · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 78% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 1. Division average is 67%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 78% | 22% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 69% | 31% | Yes |
The result model puts Kongsvinger at 83%, the draw at 9% and Raufoss at 8%, from expected goals of 4.08 and 1.4.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 67% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Kongsvinger have 17 in 20 this season (10 of 10 at home), Raufoss 15 in 20 (9 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 78% and 73%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 74%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 73%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 91%, from expected goals of 4.08 for Kongsvinger and 1.4 for Raufoss. Folding in 30% of that view gives 78%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kongsvinger | 20 | 85% | 55% | 80% |
| Raufoss | 20 | 75% | 35% | 60% |
More: Kongsvinger season stats · Raufoss season stats · 1. Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.