ÖFB Cup · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 55% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The ÖFB Cup average is 51%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | no pick |
The result model puts Kitzbühel at 69%, the draw at 18% and Grazer AK at 13%, from expected goals of 2.35 and 0.93.
The league sets the starting point. ÖFB Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Kitzbühel have 0 in 0 this season, Grazer AK 3 in 3 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 58%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 51% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 64%, from expected goals of 2.35 for Kitzbühel and 0.93 for Grazer AK. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitzbühel | 0 | — | — | — |
| Grazer AK | 3 | 100% | 33% | 33% |
More: Grazer AK season stats · ÖFB Cup table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.