IK Brage v GIF Sundsvall — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Superettan · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 61% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Superettan average is 56%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts IK Brage at 60%, the draw at 20% and GIF Sundsvall at 20%, from expected goals of 2.2 and 1.22.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Superettan has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. IK Brage have 16 in 21 this season (9 of 10 at home), GIF Sundsvall 12 in 21 (4 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 68% and 54%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.

Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 59%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 66%, from expected goals of 2.2 for IK Brage and 1.22 for GIF Sundsvall. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: IK Brage season stats · GIF Sundsvall season stats · Superettan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.