HK Kopavogur v Fylkir — prediction, stats and goal analysis

1. Deild · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 71% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 1. Deild average is 70%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts HK Kopavogur at 66%, the draw at 17% and Fylkir at 16%, from expected goals of 2.55 and 1.21.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. 1. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 70% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. HK Kopavogur have 17 in 21 this season (8 of 10 at home), Fylkir 15 in 21 (6 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 75% and 69%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 72%.

Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 57%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 70%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 72%, from expected goals of 2.55 for HK Kopavogur and 1.21 for Fylkir. Folding in 30% of that view gives 71%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: HK Kopavogur season stats · Fylkir season stats · 1. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.