2. Deild · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 77% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 2. Deild average is 69%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 77% | 23% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 74% | 26% | Yes |
The result model puts Haukar at 50%, the draw at 20% and Selfoss at 30%, from expected goals of 2.25 and 1.75.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Haukar have 18 in 20 this season (9 of 10 at home), Selfoss 17 in 20 (7 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 79% and 74%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 75%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 78%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 76%, from expected goals of 2.25 for Haukar and 1.75 for Selfoss. Folding in 30% of that view gives 77%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Haukar season stats · Selfoss season stats · 2. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.