1. Division · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 76% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 1. Division average is 67%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 76% | 24% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 65% | 35% | Yes |
The result model puts Haugesund at 75%, the draw at 13% and Sogndal at 12%, from expected goals of 3.29 and 1.33.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 67% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Haugesund have 16 in 20 this season (7 of 9 at home), Sogndal 16 in 20 (9 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 73% and 75%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 72%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 84%, from expected goals of 3.29 for Haugesund and 1.33 for Sogndal. Folding in 30% of that view gives 76%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Haugesund season stats · Sogndal season stats · 1. Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.