1. Deild · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 69% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 1. Deild average is 70%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 31% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 66% | 34% | Yes |
The result model puts Ægir at 33%, the draw at 21% and Grindavik at 46%, from expected goals of 1.77 and 2.08.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 70% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ægir have 16 in 21 this season (7 of 10 at home), Grindavik 10 in 21 (6 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 72% and 61%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 67%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 74%, from expected goals of 1.77 for Ægir and 2.08 for Grindavik. Folding in 30% of that view gives 69%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Ægir season stats · Grindavik season stats · 1. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.