2. Deild · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 70% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 2. Deild average is 69%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 71% | 29% | Yes |
The result model puts Fjolnir at 66%, the draw at 18% and Thróttur Vogar at 16%, from expected goals of 2.37 and 1.07.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Fjolnir have 17 in 20 this season (8 of 10 at home), Thróttur Vogar 13 in 20 (6 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 76% and 66%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 71%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 67%, from expected goals of 2.37 for Fjolnir and 1.07 for Thróttur Vogar. Folding in 30% of that view gives 70%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fjolnir | 20 | 85% | 70% | 95% |
| Thróttur Vogar | 20 | 65% | 45% | 70% |
More: Fjolnir season stats · Thróttur Vogar season stats · 2. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.